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USDCAD - 03/05/20

USDCAD - Bearish Technical View.


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USDCAD - Bearish Technical View. On the higher timeframes we are seeing the continuation in the downside pullback following the masssive breakout witnessed in March. The Descending channel remains intact at present as we see Lower Lows and Lower Highs being created. As we look further into this, at the lower timeframes plotting the most recent Lower high and Lower Low as anchor points for the Fibonacci Retracement, we can see very clearly the retest of the 61.8 fib level made into the weekly close on Friday into the level of 1.4106. The 6pm 4hr candle closure rejected to a tee with a small pullback off this zone. Looking more closely at the 1hr timeframes and into next week I will be looking for price to retest the 61.8 fib level again early next week and the outer levels of the descending channel for rejection and move lower to the downside. Where this occurs I will be looking for Swing setups into the 1.3900-50 initially with potential for 1.3800. Noting also the unclosed gap formed at 1.3450 would be the outer limits for the continuation in the channel should the dollar remain weak. In terms of invalidated this short bias, I would be wanting a break and retest of the descending channel and for continuation higher above the fib levels and move higher back into the 1.4650 highs made during March.

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